Global Warming Might Be Speeding Up
Some parts of the planet heat up more slowly than others, they explain. But as more time passes, the less affected by global warming will be warmer regions. Therefore, most of the global warming in this century may actually be recharged in its last decades.
The analysis, published Wednesday in Science Advances, looks at the difference between two long war fields struggling to understand how fast the world is warming.
One group examines the historical record and projects in the future all known warming, mainly through direct observation.
These studies revealed that, once there is twice as much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as there was before the industrial revolution, the temperature can rise between 1.6 degrees and 3 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit ).
These estimates, while being disconcerting, are well below the projections generated by the climate models selected by the other group. These are constructed from the equations provided by Earth’s physics and allow scientists to do something they can not do in the real world; To simulate how the world behaves under various conditions for large periods. Computer models are the laboratory rats of climate science.
The contradictory evidence presented by both sides was canonized in 2013, when the climate science group authorized, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, broke with its own practice and refused to provide a single “best estimate” of warming . Instead, it triggers, providing only a range (1.5 to 4.5 ° C) which extended the lower limit of conflict below previous assessments.
Climate change can have two speeds, depending on where you are on Earth
Why is this battle a few degrees really important? It is essential to estimate the rate of warming as accurately as possible, since the answer will determine how politicians respond aggressively to the problem.
Each field of science is based on different methods of analysis, which makes comparisons difficult. The new study aims to remedy this problem by repealing previous studies into smaller components – an attempt to provide a “Apple apple comparison,” Proistosescu said.
The authors conclude that it is worth considering two speeds of climate change. Until now, the world was in a “fast” mode, in which those most likely to heat quickly recorded the largest increases in temperature regions.
This includes land in the northern hemisphere. As for the analysis of global warming in the fast lane, the field of observation and the field of modeling agreed, according Proistosescu.
There is also a “slow” mode. Places like this one in the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean, which are cooler compared to most of the world, take longer to warm up.
But they’re going to warm up. As the atmosphere catches more heat, increasing temperature, and the overall rate of global warming will accelerate. Projections on warming based solely on historical observations ensure that the pace of climate change will remain the same; The new study indicates that, over time, things can get worse quickly.
Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA, said the new document provides independent support for the recent work of its unit and elsewhere. Their conclusion is that projections of future derived warming from recorded temperature trends are “weak.”